Universiteit Leiden Universiteit Leiden

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Development of a Dynamic Substance Stock Model

Making a dynamic substance stock model in order to conduct scenario analyses and make forecasts.

Looptijd 2001  -  2005
Contact Ester van der Voet
Financiering VITO

Material and substance flow analysis so far has been limited mostly to accounting and static modelling. In order to conduct scenario analyses and make forecasts, a dynamic model is required. Such a model must include both flows and stocks of substances. During a 4 year PhD project, a dynamic SFA model is developed based on both economic and physical / chemical information. The future demand for substances is estimated based on past correlations between the demand for the products containing the substance, and socio-economic variables. The future generation of waste and emissions is calculated from mass balance combined with a life span estimate. Next to model development, case studies are conducted to test and refine the model. At present, the first results are available for the case of lead in the Netherlands.