Research project
Managing the nuclear threshold: Non-nuclear allies in NATO decision-making
What are the motivations behind non-nuclear NATO allies’ acquisition of long-range strike missiles, and how does their employment strategy fit within NATO’s political and operational structures?
- Duration
- 2025 - 2027
- Contact
- Linde Desmaele
- Funding
-
Leiden University Fund
As tensions with Russia persist, a growing number of non-nuclear NATO allies are acquiring conventional long-range precision strike missiles (LRSM). These advanced weapon systems can target high-value military assets inside adversary territory - including their nuclear forces and related infrastructure.
Historically, non-nuclear NATO states were often seen as playing a limited role in nuclear use scenarios, as it was assumed that only nuclear-armed states could credibly threaten an adversary’s nuclear capabilities. Even countries hosting US nuclear weapons have lacked positive control over their use, with such decisions reserved for Washington.
However, the proliferation of LRSM to non-nuclear NATO members has begun to change this dynamic. These countries are now acquiring weapons over which they have decision-making authority, thus elevating their role in alliance decisions on nuclear escalation.
Project Description
This project explores why the Netherlands, Germany and Poland are pursuing LRSM capabilities, and how and when they intent to use them. It focuses in particular on how these systems are being integrated into NATO’s political and operational structures. In doing so, the project seeks to enhance understanding of how the proliferation or LRSM to non-nuclear allies is affecting NATO’s nuclear strategy and broader escalation dynamics in Europe.