Economy, identity and fishing: the issues that will define the midterms
American elections image: Unsplash
What will happen if the Democrats win the US midterm elections? And which issues matter most to American voters as they head to the polls on 3 November? US experts Andrew Gawthorpe and Sara Polak explain the state of the race and the potential implications for Trump.
In the midterm elections, Americans elect a new House of Representatives and a number of members of the Senate. Together, these two chambers make up Congress, where the Republicans currently hold a majority. If that majority changes hands, the consequences could be significant. Congress plays a key role in passing legislation and has the power to launch investigations into government. With election day approaching, lecturer in American media studies Sara Polak and historian Andrew Gawthorpe discuss the issues dominating the campaign and what a shift in Congress could mean.
What are the different factions within the Democratic Party, and which issues matter most to Democrats and Republicans?
Sara Polak: ‘The Democratic Party is an extremely broad church. Until the Fortuyn revolution, the entire Dutch political spectrum would have fitted within it. There are differences within the Republican Party too, but they have to satisfy a more homogeneous range of constituents.
‘For the Democrats, it has always been an internal battle to bring together a range of viewpoints and groups within society. At the moment, we’re seeing a clear rise in the party’s progressive left wing. This was also evident during the midterms in Trump’s first term. Then the focus was on identity, with many candidates identifying as indigenous American, queer or trans, for example. We see much less of that now, probably because of Trump’s anti-diversity policies. The Democrats’ focus has shifted towards the economy, as the rising cost of groceries and petrol has become a major concern for voters.
‘The Republicans, by contrast, are going all out on identity politics. They are fanatically anti-trans and anti-immigration. And the Evangelical rhetoric on the conflicts in Israel and Iran is also important within the party. They see these conflicts as a sign that biblical end-times prophecies are being fulfilled. As a result, politics becomes intertwined with religion, culture and national identity.
‘Although these are the broad trends shaping the midterms, it is important to remember that elections are decided state by state, and the issues that voters care about vary greatly across the country. In Alaska, for example, public debate often centres on fishing, as much of the population depends on it for their livelihood. In the Netherlands, attention tends to focus on who will win seats in the Senate and the House of Representatives. For many Americans, however, it may be just as important who becomes governor of their state or secures a seat in the state parliament.’
What could be the effect of a Democratic Congress on Trump?
Andrew Gawthorpe: ‘It’s a trend in the midterms for the party of the sitting president to lose control of Congress. Based on the polls, it appears unlikely to be any different this time. A Democratic majority is the most probable outcome. As Congress is mainly responsible for federal legislation, I predict that, if he loses, Trump will focus even more on foreign affairs, where he has greater freedom of action. Moreover, after 3 November he will no longer need to worry about popularity or upcoming elections: his presidency will end in two years.
‘There is a strong possibility that the Democrats will seek to remove Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth from office. He is widely regarded as an exceptionally incompetent and divisive figure. If he is replaced by someone willing to challenge the president, that could have implications for the war in Iran. Such an impeachment could trigger a wide range of investigations, including into the actions of politicians and other officials over the past two years.
‘In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is making a bid for a seat in the Senate. He is known to be critical of Israel and progressive in his views on foreign policy. As a senator, his direct influence on that will be limited. But if he wins, it will show that his ideas are gaining wider support. That could affect the direction of the Democratic Party and the type of presidential candidate they choose in 2028.’