Final hurdles in Dutch coalition talks: real test will be the budget
In the media image: Alireza Parpaei on Unsplash
The prospective coalition’s outline agreement is almost ready. The plans will be unveiled tomorrow and next week a concluding debate with the informateur will follow. Constitutional law expert Wim Voermans comments on ‘Sven op 1’.
Although all three coalition party leaders have indicated that they are in agreement, Voermans says things can still unravel. He refers to 1977, when the first Van Agt cabinet initially seemed to have support, only for six CDA ‘loyalists’ to block the alliance a few days later. In the end, though, they did accept the majority and promised to support the coalition cabinet.
Still, Voermans believes the chances are slim that the current process will come to a complete standstill. 'The figures received a green light and last night the coalition parties gave their agreement,' says Voermans. He also does not expect that the House of Representatives will reject the formateur's report. This has been possible since the 2012 amendment to the House’s Rules of Procedure. Since that year, the House of Representatives oversees cabinet formations and decides what happens to the report.
Voermans says that the greatest challenge will come after the formation. A minority cabinet will have to constantly seek varying majorities while adhering to strict budgetary discipline. The aim is a budget deficit of no more than 2 percent which is below the European standard of 3 percent. This makes the upcoming spring consultations on the national budget complicated. 'Painful choices will have to be made, probably in healthcare or social security, in which defence is not considered. That’s at odds with some opposition plans, such as those of GroenLinks-PvdA,' says the professor.
The budget must be approved by both the House of Representatives and the Senate. If the budget fails, it will mean the end of the cabinet. Voermans does see opportunities however: the cabinet can 'shop' on both the left and the right. This will require great political flexibility and endless talking – Voermans calls it 'blisters on the tongue' – in order to secure majorities.
It is expected that it will become clear by the end of February how the formation of the new coalition will be finalised. 'That's when the real work begins,' says Voermans. 'Good public administrators are needed who can make compromises and stay afloat in a political landscape that’s on edge.'