Eva Michaels
Assistant professor
- Name
- Dr. E.M. Michaels
- Telephone
- +31 70 800 9500
- e.m.michaels@fgga.leidenuniv.nl
- ORCID iD
- 0000-0001-8795-156X
Eva Michaels is an Assistant Professor in Intelligence and Security. Her research is situated at the intersection of European security, Intelligence Studies and International Relations. It explores how Europeans anticipate and respond to crises due to the escalation of violent conflict. Focusing on recent cases (e.g. Russia’s war on Ukraine and the fall of Kabul), Eva is interested in conceptual discussions and theoretical expectations about strategic surprise, the performance of knowledge producers and decision-makers, and experiences of failure in the intelligence-policy interface. Eva is a co-editor of Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policy (Edinburgh University Press, 2022). Her research has also been published in various peer-reviewed journals, such as the Journal of Common Market Studies, Intelligence and National Security and Media, War & Conflict.
Eva Michaels is an Assistant Professor in Intelligence and Security. Her research is situated at the intersection of European security, Intelligence Studies and International Relations. In her main research stream, she explores how Europeans prepare for and respond to crises due to the escalation of violent conflict. Focusing on recent cases (such as Russia’s war on Ukraine and the fall of Kabul), Eva is interested in conceptual discussions and theoretical expectations about strategic surprise, the performance of knowledge producers and decision-makers, and experiences of failure in the intelligence-policy interface. This also includes discussing how external experts anticipate crises and how their estimates may inform crisis responses. A second research stream investigates how EU rhetoric on security and defence (e.g. regarding the notion of strategic autonomy or crisis management operations) meets domestic realities in EU member states. A third one looks at political leadership in European security cooperation.
Eva’s background is interdisciplinary and shaped by international mobility. Prior to joining Leiden University, she was a Beatriu de Pinós Research Fellow at the Barcelona Institute of International Studies (IBEI), where she led a project on the national acceptability of European crisis responses. She started two new initiatives while at IBEI – the biennial Barcelona Workshop on International Security and a new research cluster on ‘Revisiting Realist Constructivism in International Relations’. Eva holds a PhD in War Studies from King’s College London (2016), with a thesis exploring the behaviour of France and the United Kingdom in the preparation phase for EU military operations in Africa. She also worked at KCL as a Research Associate and Teaching Fellow and as a sessional lecturer at the ESSCA School of Management in Paris and Angers. Eva gained further experience outside of academia, among others as a freelance conflict analyst and with think tanks in London, Berlin, Vienna, Paris, Brussels and Johannesburg focusing on European and African security issues.
Eva is a co-editor of Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policy (Edinburgh University Press, 2022). Her research has also been published in various peer-reviewed journals, such as the Journal of Common Market Studies, Intelligence and National Security and Media, War & Conflict. She is committed to knowledge exchange within and beyond academia, the latter by providing media commentary and engaging in practitioner-academic dialogues and public seminars.
At Leiden University, Eva convenes a specialisation course on Intelligence and Policymaking for the MSc in Crisis and Security Management and an elective on Intelligence Failures for the undergraduate Minor in Intelligence Studies. She also contributes to Dr. Tom Maguire’s course on International Intelligence Cooperation and Covert Action.
Assistant professor
- Faculty Governance and Global Affairs
- Institute of Security and Global Affairs
- Intelligence
- Michaels E.M. (2024), Caught off guard? : evaluating how external experts in Germany warned about Russia’s war on Ukraine, Intelligence and National Security 39(3): 420-442.
- E. Michaels & M. Sus (2024), (Not) Coming of Age? Unpacking the European Union’s Quest for Strategic Autonomy in Security and Defence, European Security 33(3): 383-405.
- Michaels Eva (29 June 2023), European Strategic Autonomy 2.0: What Europe Needs to get Right. Strategic Europe: Carnegie Europe.
- Michaels Eva (2022), Renewing Realist Constructivism: Does It Have Potential as a Theory of Foreign Policy?, Teoria Polityki 6: 101-122.
- Michaels Eva (2022), How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul, Intelligence and National Security 37(2): 157-176.
- Meyer Christoph O. Eva Michaels Nikki Ikani Aviva Guttmann and Michael S. Goodman (Ed.) (2022), Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking: Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise. Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press.
- Guttmann Aviva and Eva Michaels (2022), How Germany and the UK Anticipated ISIS’ Rise to Power in Syria and Iraq. In: Christoph O. Meyer Eva Michaels Nikki Ikani Aviva Guttmann and Michael S. Goodman (Ed.), Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking: Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise. Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press. 96-128.
- Nikki Ikani Meyer Christoph O. Eva Michaels and Aviva Guttmann (2022), Expectations from Estimative Intelligence and Anticipatory Foreign Policy: A Realistic Appraisal. In: Christoph O. Meyer Eva Michaels Nikki Ikani Aviva Guttmann and Michael S. Goodman (Ed.), Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking: Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise. Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press. 27-68.
- Guttmann Aviva Nikki Ikani Christoph O. Meyer and Eva Michaels (2022), Introduction: Estimative Intelligence and Anticipatory Foreign Policy. In: Christoph O. Meyer Eva Michaels Nikki Ikani Aviva Guttmann and Michael S. Goodman (Ed.), Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking: Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise. Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare. Edinburg: Edinburgh University Press. 1-26.
- Kissack Robert Eva Michaels and Óscar Fernández (2022), Unpacking National Parliamentary Perceptions of CSDP Operations, 2016-2021. Barcelona: ENGAGE Working Paper 8.
- Michaels Eva and Robert Kissack (2021), Evaluating the National Acceptability of EU External Action: Conceptual Framework for the ENGAGE Project. Barcelona: ENGAGE Working Paper 2.
- Meyer Christoph O. Eva Michaels Aviva Guttmann and Ana Albulescu, What Lessons to Learn for Intelligence Production and Use in German Foreign Policy from ISIS’ Rise to Power and Russia’s Actions in Ukraine in 2013-2014?. The Policy Institute.
- Michaels Eva and Bahar Karimi (2021), Overview of Expert Claims and EU Policy Responses to ISIS’ Rise to Power in Iraq and Syria (King's College London, INTEL Research Project). [database].
- Michaels Eva (2021), Germany’s Anticipation of and Response to ISIS’ Rise to Power: Overview of Open-source Expert Claims and Policy Responses (King's College London, INTEL Research Project). [database].
- Michaels Eva (2019), Repubblica Centrafricana: Pace, Ottavo Tentativo, Nigrizia (5): .
- Michaels Eva, Tensions Running High in Gabon: Royal Institute for International Relations.
- Meyer Christoph O. Eric Sangar and Eva Michaels (2018), How Do Non-Governmental Organizations Influence Media Coverage of Conflict? The Case of the Syrian Conflict, 2011-2014, Media, War & Conflict 11(1): 149-171.
- Meyer Christoph O. and Eva Michaels (2016), Utilising Open Sources for Conflict Prevention, Management and Resolution: Potential, Limitation and Recommendations. Brussels: European Policy Brief.
- Strickmann Eva (2014), Review of National Security Cultures: Patterns of Global Governance, edited by Emil J. Kirchner and J. Sterling, Journal of Common Market Studies 52(2): 442.
- Major Claudia and Eva Strickmann (2012), Les Défis Logistiques des Opérations de l'UE. In: Olivier Kempf (Ed.), La Logistique, une Fonction Opérationnelle Oubliée. Paris: L’Harmattan. 71-85 .
- Brockmann Katrin and Eva Strickmann (2012), EU-NATO Beziehungen: Von der Unverantwortlichkeit interorganisationeller Konkurrenz. In: Kölner Forum für Internationale Beziehungen und Sicherheitspolitik (Ed.), Transatlantische Perspektiven für die Ära Obama: Aufbruch zu neuen Ufern oder „business as usual“?. Köln: Kölner Wissenschaftsverlag. 75-111.
- Meyer Christoph O. and Eva Strickmann (2011), Solidifying Constructivism: How Material and Ideational Factors Interact in European Defence, Journal of Common Market Studies 49(1): 61-81.
- Major Claudia and Eva Strickmann, You Can’t Always Get What You Want – Logistical Challenges in EU Military Operations. SWP Working Paper (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik).
- Strickmann Eva (2010), Sorting out the Grains and Bridging Divides‘: Africa’s Rise on the Global Scene. In: Franco Algieri and Arnold Kammel (Ed.), Strukturen globaler Akteure: Eine Analyse ausgewählter Staaten, Regionen und der EU. Baden-Baden: Nomos. 135-155.
- Strickmann Eva (2009), Scenarios and Strategic Options for Coping with Climate Change. In: David Bosold and Kathrin Brockmann (Ed.), Anticipating the Future: Scenarios and Strategic Options for a New Global Order. Berlin: German Council on Foreign Relations. 51-56.
- Strickmann Eva (2009), Clausewitz und die Effektivität militärischer ESVP-Operationen in Afrika. In: Clausewitz-Gesellschaft (Ed.), Jahrbuch 2008. Hamburg: Zentrum Operative Information. 167-182 .
- Strickmann Eva, EU and NATO Efforts to Counter Piracy off Somalia – a Drop in the Ocean?. European Security Review (International Security Information Service Europe).
- Strickmann Eva (2009), Review of Krieg ohne Raum: Asymmetrische Konflikte in einer entgrenzten Welt, by Rüdiger Voigt, Zeitschrift für Politik 56(4): 497-500.
- Strickmann Eva (2008), Clausewitz im Zeitalter der neuen Kriege: Der Krieg in Ruanda (1990-1994) im Spiegel der „wunderlichen Dreifaltigkeit“. Staatlichkeit im Wandel no. 7. Berlin & Cambridge / Massachusetts: Galda.
- Hochleiter Erich and Eva Strickmann (2008), The New Security Context of the European Union. In: Erich Hochleiter (Ed.), Globale Akteure: das zukünftige Sicherheitsumfeld der Europäischen Union. Vienna: Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy. 129-134.
- Strickmann Eva, Der NATO-Gipfel von Bukarest: Aufwind für die EU-NATO-Beziehungen?. AIES Fokus (Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy).
- Strickmann Eva, ESVP-Mission im Tschad und der Zentralafrikanischen Republik. AIES Aktuelle (Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy).
- Strickmann Eva (2008), Conference Report: The Lisbon Treaty and ESDP. In: Sven Biscop and Franco Algieri (Ed.), The Lisbon Treaty and ESDP: Transformation and Integration. Brussels: Academia Press. 43-53.
- Strickmann Eva (2007), Clausewitz und neue Kriegsformen. In: Lennart Souchon (Ed.), Carl von Clausewitz – Konflikte und Strategien. Hamburg: Internationales Clausewitz-Zentrum. 14-39.