Publication
Stuck on the stairway of change: the EU’s enlargement and security and defence policies post 2022
In this article, Dimitrova, Gürkan and Koops presents a general framework for capturing and systematically analysing critical junctures and degrees of change in EU policies.
- Author
- Antoaneta L. Dimitrova , Seda Gürkan and Joachim Koops
- Date
- 22 August 2025
- Links
- Read the full article here
The framework, described as a stairway of change, builds on institutionalist literature to trace the scope and sustainability of policy shifts triggered by external shocks, such as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Using this model, the authors examine the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), and EU enlargement. They find that both areas have seen notable discursive and institutional changes since 2022. In security and defence, new roles and decision-making arrangements represent progress beyond earlier rhetoric, though unanimity rules continue to constrain deeper reform. Enlargement has gained momentum through the candidacies of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, alongside renewed progress for the Western Balkans. Significant funding and organisational measures have been introduced, but institutional change remains blocked by veto players.
The study concludes that the war has accelerated EU policy evolution and enhanced its capacity to act, yet neither security and defence nor enlargement has advanced to the level of irreversible, constitutional reform that would signify a true critical juncture. The framework provides scholars and policymakers with a structured tool to evaluate the EU’s current trajectory and to identify the conditions necessary for more sustainable and transformative policy change.