The new pope: militant or mediator?
Conclave image: ANP
In these times of political tensions and ethical dilemmas, the cardinals need to choose what kind of pope the Catholic Church needs. We asked religious studies specialist and historian Tom-Eric Krijger about the new pope. Will he be a mediator or someone who dares to take a stand?
What kind of pope will be chosen during the conclave?
‘It’s hard to predict and could go either way. There are more progressive cardinals who clearly share the views of the late Pope Francis. For example, they think it’s important for the Vatican to speak out in the debate on climate change. They don’t want doctrinal matters to take centre stage within Catholicism.
‘But there are cardinals who are more conservative and feel Pope Francis wasn’t clear enough about doctrine. They want to tighten the reins in that respect: for example, by reaffirming that people who have remarried can’t just receive Communion.’
Of the 134 cardinal electors, 110 were appointed by Pope Francis. Does this increase the chances of a pope with the same views as Francis?
‘You might expect this to mean that a majority of cardinals in the conclave share his views. But it’s a bit more nuanced than that. Francis elevated clerics to the rank of cardinal – as it is known in Catholic jargon – who, like him, think it is important to act globally on climate change. But when it comes to ethics, some take a more traditional stance than Pope Francis. So the question is what these cardinals will prioritise during the conclave.’
Will geopolitics influence the choice of the new pope?
‘A lot is happening in the world: Trump in the US, Putin in Russia, war in Ukraine and the Middle East… That will inevitably play a role, but the question is how directly. You’d think these times call for a pope who can bring people together, someone, for example, who can bring together the warring sides in Russia and Ukraine.
‘The risk, however, is that if the pope clearly acts as a neutral mediator, he may be accused of overlooking justice. Is it fair for a pope to mediate between Russia and Ukraine when Russia is so clearly the aggressor? On the other hand, if a pope speaks out too strongly in favour of one party in a conflict, this can be polarising. I imagine it’s a tough call for the cardinals: do they choose a unifier or someone who’s willing to take a stand and is not afraid to bang their fist on the table?
What role can a pope play politically?
‘Besides being head of the Catholic Church, he’s also the leader of a sovereign state: the Vatican, the Holy See. And the Holy See is represented at the United Nations. The Vatican is very active diplomatically and can draw on a wide network in the diplomatic world.
‘As head of the Catholic Church, the pope can also address Catholics worldwide, which means 1.3 billion people. Whatever he says is bound to provoke a response. So the pope is inevitably a player in the global public debate. He can try to exert influence through statements or by issuing encyclicals [a papal letter]. That influence is hard to measure but politicians do take note of what’s happening in the wider debate.
‘The pope can also try a more indirect approach by presenting himself as a moral authority: someone who rises above individual interests and can mediate. The challenge, though, is that the Catholic Church’s moral authority has been undermined by all the abuse scandals. Francis managed to restore some of that, but the question remains how far a pope can still be accepted as a true moral authority.’
Does moral authority still hold weight nowadays?
‘There are two sides to that too. On the one hand, you might think someone like Trump or Putin won’t be told what to do by the pope. But on the other hand, the pope can present himself as a shining moral example, a counterweight to leaders like Trump and Putin. That would show that the world stage is the preserve of not just megalomaniacs but also someone who is guided by morality, solidarity and justice.’
Do you think the new pope will be chosen quickly?
‘Vatican watchers who are convinced the next pope will be very like Francis think it won’t take long. Others think we shouldn’t underestimate the conservative forces in the Catholic Church, which could make the conclave take longer. I don’t expect it to be wrapped up in a day or two, but then again, I’m a historian and am terrible at predicting the future.’