Research project
Predict the tip - conflict as an early warning signal of social tipping points
Current social norms are unsustainable, making behavior change crucial for addressing the climate crisis. Social norms can shift rapidly after tipping points, but these are often only recognised in hindsight. To promote change, we need better predictive power, i.e. ability to detect early warning signs that a tipping point is about to happen.
- Duration
- 2026 - 2027
- Contact
- Anne Urai
- Funding
-
Fyssen Foundation
Scientific background
We explore a new angle: the emergence of decisional conflict may predict that a tipping point in behaviors is near. Recognising such decisional conflict and timing policies accordingly may thus help to speed up societal change. Leveraging methods from social, cognitive, and computational sciences, using lab experiments, real world data, and computational modelling, we test whether various measures of conflict can be a sign of impending transitions in societal dynamics. Together, we aim to broaden our fundamental understanding of the emergence of social norms, building a foundation for targeted and effective interventions.