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Spatiotemporal building stock modeling for residential decarbonization in the Netherlands

Decarbonizing the building stock is critical for realizing the climate-neutral target for the Netherlands.

Yang, X.
28 June 2022
Thesis in Leiden Repository

This thesis uses multi-source data, mainly including GIS data of building footprints and the archetypes representative of Dutch residential buildings, to develop a series of bottom-up building stock models to track future material stock and flows, energy demand, electricity generation, and GHG emissions. Results demonstrate the great potential for decarbonizing the Dutch residential building sector, while decarbonization strategies should be effectively and extensively implemented. Saving space heating energy consumption is the most direct way to reduce annual GHG emissions. Considering that most existing residential buildings will still be in use in 2050, renovating them with high energy performance standards is required. Despite the great potential of renovation, it alone is not enough to realize the climate-neutral target in the residential building stock because the upstream fossil fuel-based energy systems still emit large amounts of GHG. Replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources is a critical path, mainly involving onsite natural gas combustion for space heating and offsite natural gas and coal combustion for electricity and heat (in heat networks) generation. Urban mining cannot contribute to as much GHG emission reduction as energy transition strategies, though, should still be implemented as it can reduce the primary material consumption and CDW landfill. In addition to the technical aspects considered in this thesis, it is also necessary to develop feasible policies in terms of socioeconomic aspects to guarantee the effective and quick deployment of these technical strategies.

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