Forecasting-informed foreign policy decision-making: the case of jus ad vim
This article by Eamon Aloyo examines how evidence-based forecasting can improve foreign policy decision-making under uncertainty, with a particular focus on the use of force short of war (jus ad vim).
- Author
- Eamon Aloyo
- Date
- 09 September 2026
- Links
- Read the full article here
Eamon Aloyo examines how foreign-policy decisions involving jus ad vim (the use of limited force short of war), can be improved under conditions of uncertainty. The study addresses a gap in the literature: empirical insights from psychology, behavioural economics and political science have rarely been systematically applied to jus ad vim decision-making.
This is a conceptual and literature-based study rather than original empirical research. Aloyo reviews research on foreign-policy decision models, cognitive biases and probabilistic forecasting. He focuses on base-rate neglect, anchoring and overconfidence, and uses US policy towards Syria as an illustrative case. He compares evidence on policy options including arming rebels, sanctions, humanitarian intervention and support for non-violent resistance. The reviewed evidence generally suggests that non-violent movements are more likely than violent campaigns to promote democratization and avoid atrocities, although findings on sanctions and military intervention are mixed.
Aloyo concludes that governments should incorporate evidence-based, numerical forecasts into intelligence briefings and decision-making procedures. Policymakers should begin with historical base rates, adjust them using case-specific information, compare independent assessments and aggregate forecasts. This approach could reduce cognitive bias, encourage caution and improve foreign-policy outcomes. Aloyo also recommends further research into AI-assisted forecasting and stronger institutional oversight.