What to Expect from the NATO Summit in The Hague
Preview image: Ministry of Foreign Affairs
With strained US relations and war in Ukraine, difficult discussions lie ahead at the NATO summit in The Hague this June. What’s at stake, and what might we realistically expect? Three academics from Leiden share their insights.
Nikki Ikani, European security expert, specialising in intelligence and anticipating international crises
‘My research focuses on how warnings about geopolitical developments are received by international organisations like NATO – whether they take them seriously. Take the recent intelligence from the Baltic states warning of Russian military preparations in the area. Estonia’s foreign intelligence service has flagged Russia’s military expansion as potentially indicative of a conflict with NATO. Denmark’s intelligence agency has similarly suggested Russia could be ready for large-scale war in Europe within five years if it views NATO as weak.
‘International organisations often struggle to respond effectively to early warnings’
‘My findings show that international organisations often struggle to respond effectively to early warnings, particularly when doing so would require major shifts in policy or resource allocation. That’s why this NATO summit is so critical. It’s a moment of reckoning – a crossroads where member states must demonstrate their ability to anticipate future threats and act proactively, rather than being caught out by each new crisis.
‘I’m keen to see if we get firm commitments at the NATO summit, not just from the US to NATO, but also from European countries to take greater ownership of their own security. As the military theorist Clausewitz put it: Qui veut la paix, prépare la guerre (If you want peace, prepare for war). We may see that sentiment in action.’
Martijn Kitzen, Endowed Professor of Military Sciences
‘My academic focus is on how armed forces are deployed, so I’m watching closely for operational plans. Will there be discussions about a peacekeeping force in Ukraine, should a ceasefire emerge? There’s already a “coalition of the willing”. I’m curious how that will evolve during the summit, and how it will align with NATO’s broader defence strategy for Eastern Europe?
‘I’m curious about the wider implications of the Russian threat.’
‘I’ll also be watching the debate about defence budgets. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is expected to propose a 5% defence spending target by 2032, up from the 2% agreed in Wales in 2014, a target that was widely endorsed but poorly implemented. Now there’s a growing consensus that countries can no longer afford to ignore NATO commitments. Defence is once again seen as essential, both internationally and domestically.
‘While NATO’s focus is on Eastern Europe, I’m curious if the summit will also address the wider implications of the Russian threat. Russia’s influence isn’t confined to the East. Hybrid warfare is happening across Europe and in its surrounding waters. On NATO’s southern flank, instability in the Sahel [a region in Sub-Sharan Africa] and rising terrorism threats there are also linked to Russian activity. These are pressure points Russia could exploit. Will that issue make it onto the agenda?’
Linde Desmaele, expert in US alliances and European security
‘From my discipline, the US perspective, the key question is what role America wants to take in European security. Washington has been pushing for more balanced burden-sharing, but there’s more to it than money: Vice-President JD Vance has accused Europe of failing to uphold Western civilisation. For the US, NATO isn’t just about defence spending – it’s about defending core values.
‘Perhaps more clarity on how the US defines the NATO principles.’
‘What’s unclear is how the US currently defines those principles. NATO’s founding treaty champions liberty, democracy and the rule of law. But President Donald Trump seems to be reshaping those concepts, framing democracy more as the direct will of the majority than as a system rooted in institutions and norms. The current US administration sees NATO as a guardian of these principles. I’m interested to see how that plays out at the summit.
‘I’m also interested to see whether Secretary-General Rutte can keep the summit focused purely on defence. Trump has a habit of conflating policy areas, mixing defence with trade, for example. Rutte wants to keep things separate and avoid complicating NATO’s relationship with the US. But whether he’ll succeed remains to be seen.’