Political turmoil in Turkey: is there a future for democracy?
guest lecture
Turkish politics was shaken by the arrest of Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, along with dozens of others from the main opposition party. In light of this event, Dr. Berk Esen, professor of Political Science at Sabancı University in Turkey, visited The Hague for a guest lecture on the future of Turkish politics.
Since 2002, Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has weakened democratic institutions and expanded Erdoğan’s power, especially after 2017 reforms created a dominant presidency. Despite this, the opposition has stayed competitive and challenged the ruling party in Turkey.
The 19 March arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu signals a shift toward authoritarianism similar to Russia or Venezuela, where elections no longer enable change. The crackdown sparked protests and renewed opposition efforts. On 12 May, Dr. Berk Esen gave a guest lecture and spoke with us about the arrest and Turkey’s democratic prospects.
What does the arrest of mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu signal about the current trajectory of authoritarianism in Turkey?
‘İmamoğlu’s arrest is an assault on what remains of Turkey’s electoral institutions and poses a serious risk of reverting the country to full autocracy - where elections would no longer matter. İmamoğlu is the opposition’s presidential candidate and currently polls ahead of Erdoğan. His arrest is therefore not a limited operation against a single politician but a direct challenge to the main opposition party and the voters’ right to choose their representatives.’
Despite the AKP’s authoritarian turn, the opposition has made significant electoral gains in recent years. How do you explain this resilience?
‘The opposition’s resilience can be attributed to two main factors. First is the diverse nature of Turkish society. Given the country’s ethnic, religious, and sectarian differences, it is difficult for the ruling party to secure overwhelming support for its agenda.
Second, the main opposition party did a commendable job of bringing other opposition parties together, which helped victories in the 2019 local elections. These wins gave the opposition access to valuable public resources and administrative platforms. Through this, the opposition was able to provide services to millions, effectively running a parallel operation to the central government and broadening its support base in the process. It won the 2024 local elections thanks to this effective management at the local level.’
What differentiates Turkey’s political crisis from other authoritarian contexts globally?
‘We’re currently witnessing a global wave of autocratisation that has affected not only countries in the Global South but also well-established democracies in the West. Trump’s presidency in the U.S., for example, triggered deep institutional conflicts and led to attacks on the judiciary, bureaucracy, and media.
So I’m not sure that Turkey is entirely unique—but perhaps two aspects stand out. First, the erosion of democracy in Turkey has been relatively gradual. As a result, democratic backsliding in Turkey has unfolded over more than a decade, and the country still retains many of its electoral institutions. Second, even after 23 years out of power, the main opposition party remains electorally viable and capable of mounting serious challenges to the ruling party.
There is a tendency to equate Turkey with Erdoğan, but in reality, there is a vibrant opposition that represents roughly half of the electorate - perhaps more at this point.’
What keeps you hopeful or motivated to keep studying and speaking about these issues?
‘As a Turkish citizen, I remain deeply committed to the country’s republican and secular traditions and hold out hope for a return to democratisation. I’m not a politician—just an academic—but I see value in shedding light on what is happening in my country. As a scholar of democratic erosion and autocratisation, I feel a professional and ethical responsibility to contribute to the field and inform my students.’