Why we should be more concerned about the spread of bird flu
'The chance of a pandemic is small, but not zero,' according to Nikki Ikani, assistant professor of intelligence and security. She warns in various media outlets about the ignored signals and the facilitated mutations, calling it 'alarming that mammals can also contract it.'
On BNR Nieuwsradio, Nikki Ikani explains that while the global number of human bird flu infections remains low, the fatality rate is around 50%, and the number of cases is increasing. For now, bird flu does not pose a likely threat of large-scale human-to-human transmission, but the virus is far from harmless. It continues to mutate, a process facilitated by densely packed poultry farms: ‘They not only create opportunities for the virus itself to mutate, but also for it to jump species and find new hosts.’ In the United States, viral fragments have even been detected in milk.
The Conversation also highlights the seriousness of the ignored warning signals surrounding bird flu. The H5 variants are highly lethal to birds and have caused millions of deaths worldwide. By now, at least 74 mammal species, ‘from elephant seals to polar bears’, have also died from the virus. Ikani’s research focuses on how warnings fail before catastrophe, and she sees the same pattern emerging here. The means to detect change are in place: veterinarians, virologists and surveillance systems are identifying outbreaks and tracking how the virus evolves. But the system designed to detect the virus at an early stage is steadily weakening. Organisations that once mapped emerging pandemic threats have been stripped back by budget cuts and staff shortages, meaning crucial signals are not being adequately acted upon.
Ikani concludes that this does not necessarily mean a pandemic is imminent. But if it were to occur, ‘the consequences could be catastrophic. We have no immunity to H5, and unlike COVID, this virus does not mainly affect only the most vulnerable.’
Read the full articles on the websites of BNR Nieuwsradio and The Conversation.