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The predictive value of polls in a fragmented multi-party system: the Netherlands (1998–2021)

Political scientists Tom van der Meer, Lisa Janssen (University of Amsterdam) and Tom Louwerse (Leiden University) analyse polls presented by the main polling agencies in the Netherlands, as well as micro-level panel data. They reach three main conclusions. First, vote intention polls in the Netherlands generally do not provide more information than the previous election outcome, until the last few weeks of an election cycle. Second, the predictive accuracy of vote intention polls is lower for challenger parties than for non-challenger parties, particularly midway through the election cycle. Third, the predictive value for individual voters is generally very low, until the last few months before the election.

Tom W.G. van der Meer, Lisa Janssen & Tom Louwerse
28 June 2022
› Acta Politica
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