Universiteit Leiden

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Dissertation

European strategic autonomy as a double-edged sword? US perspectives in an Era of Sino-American competition

In this article, Linde Desmaele explores how the United States is recalibrating its stance on European unity amid growing strategic competition with China, focusing on the interplay of alliance costs and expected alignment.

Author
Linde Desmaele
Date
13 September 2025
Links
Read the full article here

The article argues that US policy towards European unity is shaped by two main factors: cost tolerance, meaning the willingness to bear NATO's financial, political and diplomatic burdens, and expected alignment, which refers to the likelihood of Europe aligning with US preferences on China. These factors create different US attitudes towards European unity, ranging from proactive support to opposition.

The Trump administration demonstrated low cost tolerance and low expectations of European alignment, adopting coercive strategies to limit European autonomy in China policy. In contrast, the Biden administration showed somewhat higher cost tolerance and optimism about transatlantic coordination, although it still managed European unity cautiously in order to preserve US leadership.

The study finds that US strategic goals create a dilemma: Washington needs a strong and united Europe to support its China strategy but fears losing influence if Europe becomes too autonomous.

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