Publication
Beyond the binary: A new typology for evaluating warning success and failure in strategic surprise
This article by Dr. Nikki Ikani challenges binary views of intelligence warnings, proposing a multidimensional typology to evaluate warning effectiveness on a spectrum across analytical, process, and political dimensions.
- Author
- Nikki Ikani
- Date
- 09 April 2025
- Links
- Read the full article here
Ikani argues that warning outcomes exist on a continuum, not as simple successes or failures. Her typology dissects effectiveness into three dimensions: the analytical dimension focuses on the accuracy and timeliness of threat assessments, the process dimension examines the effectiveness of communication channels, and the political dimension assesses decision-makers’ receptivity to warnings. Using case studies, including the UK’s COVID-19 response and EU warnings before Crimea’s annexation, she demonstrates that strengths in one dimension often coexist with weaknesses in others. For instance, analytical rigour may slow communication, and political receptivity consistently underperforms, revealing systemic vulnerabilities in translating warnings into action. This approach highlights inherent trade-offs and challenges the oversimplified 'intelligence failure' narrative.