How do you prepare for the threats of tomorrow?
As geopolitical tensions rise and the international landscape becomes increasingly volatile, the Netherlands faces a growing range of threats, from cyber attacks and disinformation to foreign interference and social unrest. In the new executive programme Strategy and a Resilient Rule of Law, researchers from Leiden University and experts from The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) combine their expertise in strategic thinking, security and societal resilience.
Looking beyond incidents
Many incidents are symptoms of broader underlying developments. Geopolitical tensions, online radicalisation, cyber threats and organised crime rarely occur in isolation; they are often interconnected and can reinforce one another. As a result, recognising patterns and looking beyond the issues of the day is becoming increasingly important.
For Gerben Bakker, Senior Strategic Analyst at HCSS and co-developer of the programme, this was one of the key reasons for creating Strategy and a Resilient Rule of Law. The programme is designed for professionals working at the intersection of security, governance, policy and strategy who wish to strengthen their strategic capabilities in an increasingly complex security environment.
Bakker: 'Many security organisations are highly effective at responding to incidents. The greater challenge is recognising the developments that precede those incidents. In this programme, participants learn to analyse signals, trends and threats in context, enabling them not only to respond to change, but also to anticipate it.'
Driven by this need, researchers from Leiden University and experts from HCSS jointly developed a programme that brings together strategic analysis, security and societal resilience.
Strategic action in a complex world
In a rapidly changing and increasingly complex environment, the ability to identify signals early, interpret developments and make strategic decisions is becoming ever more important. According to Philippe van Pappelendam, Programme Director for Security at Leiden University's Centre for Professional Learning, the programme offers participants the opportunity to look beyond immediate developments and consider the risks of tomorrow.
Van Pappelendam: 'Consider online extremism, organised crime or geopolitical tensions: each is driven by underlying dynamics. Understanding those dynamics requires more than subject-matter expertise. This programme combines academic insights with practical analytical methods and helps participants translate complex challenges into concrete decisions and courses of action.'
Participants are introduced to analytical methods and tools such as foresight, scenario development, social media analysis and data-driven techniques. Drawing on current developments in geopolitics, foreign interference, digital extremism and organised crime, they learn how to analyse trends and threats in relation to one another. A central focus is the ability to translate developments into their implications for policy, governance and security.
Leiden University and HCSS: connecting academia and practice
The programme was developed by the Centre for Professional Learning in collaboration with The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS), a leading Dutch knowledge institute specialising in geopolitics, security and strategic affairs. Together, the two organisations combine academic expertise with practical experience.
According to Van Pappelendam, this combination enables participants not only to understand complex developments, but also to place them in a broader context. What is happening in the world? Which patterns are emerging? And what do they mean for organisations responsible for safeguarding security and upholding the democratic rule of law?
The challenges facing the rule of law cannot be understood from a single disciplinary perspective. That is why the programme brings together experts from academia, policy and security practice. Rob de Wijk, Emeritus Professor of International Relations and one of the programme's lecturers, places security challenges within their broader geopolitical context.
De wijk: 'The most significant threats are geopolitical in nature and therefore inherently complex. Yet public debate is often driven by incidents, without an understanding of the geopolitical developments behind them. This creates a distorted picture and limits our understanding of what is really taking place.'
From analysis to action
Many professionals recognise the feeling that developments are moving faster than organisations can keep pace with. In such an environment, strategic thinking is no longer a luxury but a necessity.
According to Bakker, understanding tomorrow's security challenges requires looking beyond today's crises. He says: 'In this programme, we examine how geopolitical, technological and societal developments combine to create new threats, and how those insights can be translated into strategic action.'
The programme
Strategy and a Resilient Rule of Law (taught in Dutch) starts in September 2026 and offers professionals the opportunity to step back from day-to-day practice, place developments in a broader context and strengthen their ability to think strategically about the future.
More information (in Dutch)