Lecture by Andrea Roventini (in Utrecht)
- Friday 1 February 2019
- Minnaert Building, room 4.16
CLUe Lunch Meeting: The first Agent-Based Integrated Assessment Model
The monthly CLUe lunch meeting is part of the Complexity Lab Utrecht (CLUe) activities. The aim of the CLUe lunch meeting is to learn from complex system researchers from various disciplines.
The lunch is FREE for all the participants
Please register before Wednesday Jan 30th through the website.
Dr. Andrea Roventini
The first Agent-Based Integrated Assessment Model.
Andrea Roventini is Associate Professor at the Institute of Economics at Sant'Anna, Pisa. His main research interests include complex system analysis, agent-based computational economics, growth, business cycles, and the study of the effects of monetary, fiscal, technology and climate policies. He is currently participating to European Commission FP7 project “Impacts and Risks from Higher-End Scenarios: Strategies for Innovative Solutions” (IMPRESSION), http://www.impressions-project.eu; European Commission H2020 project, “Distributed Global Financial Systems for Society “(DOLFINS), http://www.dolfinsproject.eu; European CommissionH2020 project, “Innovation-Fuelled, Sustainable, Inclusive Economic Growth” (ISIGrowth), http://www.isigrowth.eu
Integrated Assessment Models are modes coupling a simple climate module to a stylised economic model, and are widely used to evaluate and optimise climate policy.
In this Lunchtalk I present the first agent-based Integrated Assessment Model, which offers an alternative to standard, computable general-equilibrium frameworks. The Dystopian Schumpeter meeting Keynes (DSK) model is composed of heterogeneous firms belonging to capital-good, consumption-good and energy sectors. Production and energy generation lead to greenhouse gas emissions, which affect temperature dynamics in a non-linear way. Increasing temperature triggers climate damages hitting, at the micro-level, workers’ labor productivity, energy efficiency, capital stock and inventories of firms. In that, aggregate damages are emerging properties of the out-of-equilibrium interactions among heterogeneous and boundedly rational agents. The DSK model is able to account for a wide ensemble of micro and macro empirical regularities concerning both economic and climate dynamics. Moreover, different types of shocks have heterogeneous impact on output growth, unemployment rate, and the likelihood of economic crises. Finally, we show that the magnitude and the uncertainty associated to climate change impacts increase over time, and that climate damages are much larger than those estimated through standard IAMs. These results point to the presence of tipping points and irreversible trajectories, thereby suggesting the need of urgent policy interventions.
This talk is advertised as part of an ongoing scientific initiative called the "Leiden Complex Networks Network" (LCN2), which aims at bringing together scientists with a common interest in both theoretical models and empirical analyses of complex networks and random graphs. The LCN2 community that is being established shares the approach of using networks for describing real-world complex systems and aims at developing related analytical and numerical methods, while also being open to other research approaches for studying complex systems.